Should Boks throw the Samoa match?

If Ireland’s win over Australia was a disaster for the Wallabies, it was a nightmare for the Boks, says Peter Bills.

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Auckland - If Ireland’s sensational upset win over Australia was a disaster for the Wallabies it was a nightmare for Peter de Villiers’ South Africans.

Unless the Irish now trip up against either Russia or Italy, which is highly unlikely, their win over Australia looks certain to have lumped the Springboks in the same half of the draw as the Wallabies and All Blacks.

If so, it means that South Africa would have to beat both the reigning Tri-Nations champions and the Rugby World Cup favourites just to reach the World Cup final. Who knows how many Springboks would be left standing after that horrendous knock-out programme?

Yet there is a possible escape from this nightmare for the South Africans. The question is, would they take it?

The key to this intriguing equation lies in the tournament’s own rules.

They say this: “If, at the completion of the pool phase two or more teams are level on match points, then the following criteria shall be used in the following order until one of the teams can be determined as the higher ranked:

* The winner of the match in which the two tied teams have played each other

* The team which has the best difference between points scored for and points scored against in all its pool matches

* The team which has the best difference between tries scored for and tries scored against in all its pool matches.

If South Africa beat Namibia this week and score four or more tries in doing so which is virtually guaranteed, they would take five points to move to 14.

Then comes the crunch of this equation. If they then beat Samoa, they would be certain to finish top of their pool. But the question is, would they want to? Would it not give them a potentially far easier route if they avoided Australia and New Zealand?

That could happen if the following occurred. South Africa would lose to Samoa but take a bonus point for a loss by less than seven. It would mean the Springboks would finish with 15 points.

If Samoa beat the ‘Boks but without scoring four tries, they would take four points. If they also beat Fiji, they would double that haul, giving them a final tally of 14. The uncertainty is whether they get a bonus point in a victory over Fiji, for scoring four tries. If they did, a win over South Africa would then put them on 15 points.

But what is especially interesting here is that Samoa plays Fiji five days before they meet the Springboks. So South Africa would know whether the Samoans took four or five points off Fiji. Even so, if South Africa take five points off Namibia and only one off Samoa it would give them 15 points.

Critically, Samoa would top the pool because they had beaten South Africa, giving the Springboks a likely quarter final against Ireland and a position among the northern hemisphere teams whom they would be far more confident of beating.

In theory, Wales could still reach 15 points if they beat both Namibia and Fiji, as is quite likely, and took a bonus point from each game. But again, because Wales lost to South Africa, the Springboks would finish ahead of the Welsh in the event of a three-way tie, with all the three countries locked on 15 points. The final placing would be Samoa first, South Africa second, Wales third.

Would any coach consider throwing a game for the benefit of his own team? I am sure every coach is perfectly honest and legit. But isn’t tactical manipulation a part of most professional sports where considerable sums of money are involved?

You only have to look at motor racing’s F1 or professional soccer to see that proven. - The Star

Source: http://www.iol.co.za/should-boks-throw-the-samoa-match-1.1141107

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